Porto 2-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.69
6+ Goals
13%
6.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.77
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.4
X/1
14%
3.88
X/2
6%
13.15
X/X
7%
6.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.15
2/2
12%
9.26
2/X
9%
16.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-6.1pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.4pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 20%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
2.06/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.46
+21% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -49%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 82%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
20.8 Crosses 13.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.94 xG 0.87
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
367 Passes 308
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
18.05.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
14.01.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
04.06.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK
19.03.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
30.09.2022 Porto Porto 4-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
25.04.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
2-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.22 xG 0.92
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
395 Passes 347
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 16
7 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto squeezed past Sporting Braga 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Porto had 53% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 47%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 1.22 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto and 0.33 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Porto vs Sporting Braga?

Porto 2-1 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Porto 57%, draw 21%, Sporting Braga 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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