Dinamo Moscow 1-2 CSKA Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.98
2-3 Goals
36%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.12
6+ Goals
13%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.29
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
16%
5.35
X/2
13%
6.08
X/X
11%
5.02
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
9%
3.94
2/X
6%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -7%
1.49/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.43
-7% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
376 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.1 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
4W-1D-1L
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.66 xG 1.37
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
278 Passes 344
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
25.11.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-3 HT 2-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
19.08.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
13.11.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 1-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
08.10.2022 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
24.04.2022 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
08.08.2021 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1-2
AWAY CSKA Moskova
0.66 xG 2.54
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
465 Passes 341
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs CSKA Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova nicked a narrow win over Dinamo Moscow 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Moscow at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 57% of the ball to CSKA Moskova's 43%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.66 to 2.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold CSKA Moskova's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.17 for CSKA Moskova.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs CSKA Moskova?

Dinamo Moscow 1-2 CSKA Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs CSKA Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 45%, draw 25%, CSKA Moskova 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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