Maribor 1-2 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 6 Oct 2024

Maribor
1-2 HT 1-0
Celje
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Slovenia - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Maribor vs Celje Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.42
6+ Goals
11%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 27% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Maribor v Celje — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
1.40/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.19
+7% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8

Maribor vs Celje Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Celje
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.09.2024 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
09.03.2024 Celje Celje 1-1 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
12.11.2023 Maribor Maribor 0-1 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
03.09.2023 Celje Celje 2-0 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
29.04.2023 Celje Celje 3-1 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
26.02.2023 Maribor Maribor 2-0 HT 2-0 Celje Celje SLVN

Maribor 1-2 Celje — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
1-2
AWAY Celje
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celje squeezed past Maribor 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Maribor at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Maribor had 33% of the ball to Celje's 67%, shots finished 8-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celje led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Maribor and 1.50 for Celje.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Celje?

Maribor 1-2 Celje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Maribor 45%, draw 24%, Celje 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Maribor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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