Varbergs GIF 3-5 Jonsereds IF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland, 6 Oct 2025

📅06/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
44%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
Over 2.5
65%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
No
33%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-4.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
44%
Away Win
38%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varbergs GIF EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Jonsereds IF EU Bookmakers 42%
+22% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.23/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.47
+30% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
346 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varbergs GIF
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Jonsereds IF
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 0
24.05.2025 Jonsereds IF Jonsereds IF 2-1 HT 1-1 Varbergs GIF Varbergs GIF İSÇ4
11.08.2024 Varbergs GIF Varbergs GIF 3-2 HT 2-0 Jonsereds IF Jonsereds IF İSÇ4
13.04.2024 Jonsereds IF Jonsereds IF 1-2 HT 1-1 Varbergs GIF Varbergs GIF İSÇ4
POST-MATCH Varbergs GIF vs Jonsereds IF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jonsereds IF beat Varbergs GIF 5-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Jonsereds IF as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (67%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Varbergs GIF had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Varbergs GIF and 1.67 for Jonsereds IF.

What was the final score of Varbergs GIF vs Jonsereds IF?

Varbergs GIF 3-5 Jonsereds IF in the Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland on 06/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varbergs GIF vs Jonsereds IF?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jonsereds IF win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Varbergs GIF 32%, draw 24%, Jonsereds IF 44%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jonsereds IF), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jonsereds IF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSÇ4 More Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland
6 Oct 2025
20:00 Nosaby IF vs Balkan Analysis →
20:15 FK Karlskrona vs Växjö Norra Analysis →