Vancouver Whitecaps 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 6 Oct 2025

📅06/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.45
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
17%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.17
Over 2.5
66%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.46
No
37%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.74
2-3 Goals
36%
2.3
4-5 Goals
28%
2.35
6+ Goals
17%
4.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.72
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.2
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.48
X/2
6%
13.2
X/X
8%
8.45
2/1
8%
16.85
2/2
7%
8.9
2/X
4%
16.95
Value flag · X/1 at 4.48 — our 23% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
64%
+0.7pp
18%
Draw
19%
-0.9pp
17%
Away Win
17%
+0.3pp
34%
Under 2.5
28%
+5.7pp
66%
Over 2.5
72%
-5.7pp
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
-1.8pp
37%
BTTS No
36%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vancouver Whitecaps EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
2.13/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.95
-2% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
409 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 81%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
23.7 Crosses 16.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vancouver Whitecaps
2W-0D-4L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.37 xG 1.24
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
377 Passes 420
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
10.08.2025 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 HT 0-0 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps ABD
15.09.2024 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 2-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
10.03.2024 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 0-2 HT 0-0 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps ABD
21.08.2023 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 0-1 HT 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
05.03.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 HT 0-1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps ABD
05.09.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-0 HT 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vancouver Whitecaps
4-1
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.49 xG 0.51
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
408 Passes 229
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
37 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vancouver Whitecaps ran out comfortable winners over San Jose Earthquakes 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vancouver Whitecaps as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vancouver Whitecaps had 61% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 39%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.49 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Jose Earthquakes led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.17 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Vancouver Whitecaps 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 06/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vancouver Whitecaps win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Vancouver Whitecaps 65%, draw 18%, San Jose Earthquakes 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vancouver Whitecaps), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vancouver Whitecaps) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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