Deportivo Garcilaso 2-4 Alianza Atletico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 6 Oct 2025

📅06/10/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
54%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Atletico EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.42/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.25
-8% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
319 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
22.2 Crosses 14.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Alianza Atletico
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.01 xG 1.27
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
237 Passes 201
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2025 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
10.08.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
29.02.2024 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 3-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
01.10.2023 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
21.05.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 3-2 HT 2-1 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
2-4
AWAY Alianza Atletico
0.48 xG 1.75
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
259 Passes 183
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Atletico beat Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Garcilaso at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 58% of the ball to Alianza Atletico's 42%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.48 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Alianza Atletico led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.80 for Alianza Atletico.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?

Deportivo Garcilaso 2-4 Alianza Atletico in the Peru - Premier League on 06/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 54%, draw 25%, Alianza Atletico 21%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
PER More Peru - Premier League
6 Oct 2025
02:00 Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College Analysis →