Sassuolo 3-1 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Dec 2025

Sassuolo
3-1 HT 2-1
Fiorentina
📅06/12/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2025/2026

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
40%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.74
Over Pick
52%
1.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.88
2-3
34%
1.76
4-5 ✓
24%
3.91
6+
12%
17.7
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.91 — our 24% vs market 19.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
4.11
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
17%
5.99
X/2
15%
5.74
X/X
15%
4.16
2/1 ✗
8%
32.0
2/2
17%
3.84
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.0 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Sassuolo v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo The Market 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina The Market 39%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Bad Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
1.14 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.35
1.53 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.22
Strong Attackvs comparable teams Strong
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Average
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
335 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 82%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
17.7 Crosses 17.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.27 xG 2.31
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
280 Passes 396
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 31
8 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.04.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 5-1 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
06.01.2024 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
02.06.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-3 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
07.01.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
26.02.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
19.12.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 0-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA

Sassuolo 3-1 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
3-1
AWAY Fiorentina
1.00 xG 1.23
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
260 Passes 423
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Sassuolo beat Fiorentina 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Sassuolo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 52% and both teams to score at 52%. At 1.74 (~57%), the under-2.5 price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

Under the surface, Fiorentina saw more of the ball, 60% to 40%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.00 to 1.23.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for Sassuolo against 2.17 for Fiorentina.

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Result & Final Score

Sassuolo 3-1 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 33%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 40%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fiorentina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
6 Dec 2025
20:00 Inter vs Como Analysis →
22:45 Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Analysis →