Fiorentina 5-1 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.17
6+ Goals
14%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.99
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
15%
3.89
X/2
5%
11.0
X/X
10%
5.55
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
12%
8.4
2/X
9%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.82/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.77
-7% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
24.4 Crosses 14.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.06 xG 1.42
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
334 Passes 346
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.01.2024 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
02.06.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-3 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
07.01.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
26.02.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
19.12.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 0-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
17.04.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
5-1
AWAY Sassuolo
67% Ball Possession 33%
22 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
548 Passes 217
90% Pass Accuracy 73%
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina swept aside Sassuolo 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 67% of the ball to Sassuolo's 33%, shots finished 22-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fiorentina and 1.67 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?

Fiorentina 5-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 50%, draw 26%, Sassuolo 24%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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