Bologna 1-1 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.3
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 35% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.11
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.65
X/1
21%
3.62
X/2
9%
10.45
X/X
15%
4.59
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
6%
9.18
2/X
6%
17.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.73/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.75
+19% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.6 Crosses 12.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Udinese
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.12
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
392 Passes 283
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2023 Udinese Udinese 3-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
02.04.2023 Bologna Bologna 3-0 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
15.01.2023 Udinese Udinese 1-2 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
24.04.2022 Bologna Bologna 2-2 HT 1-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
17.10.2021 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
08.05.2021 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
1-1
AWAY Udinese
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
546 Passes 270
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Bologna vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna and Udinese shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bologna at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Bologna had 65% of the ball to Udinese's 35%, shots finished 15-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bologna had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bologna and 1.33 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Bologna vs Udinese?

Bologna 1-1 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bologna vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Bologna 53%, draw 27%, Udinese 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bologna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bologna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
28 Apr 2024
13:30 Inter vs Torino Analysis →
19:00 Napoli vs Roma Analysis →
19:00 Atalanta vs Empoli Analysis →
21:45 Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Analysis →