Napoli 2-2 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Apr 2024

Napoli
2-2 HT 0-0
Roma
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Napoli vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.49
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
11%
12.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.57
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
12%
4.38
X/2
9%
7.7
X/X
6%
4.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.0
2/2
14%
5.67
2/X
10%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Napoli v Roma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -15%
1.48/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.37
+26% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 80%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
16.8 Crosses 15.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

Napoli vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Roma
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.92 xG 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
439 Passes 327
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
29.01.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
23.10.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
18.04.2022 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
24.10.2021 Roma Roma 0-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
21.03.2021 Roma Roma 0-2 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA

Napoli 2-2 Roma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
2-2
AWAY Roma
48% Ball Possession 52%
26 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
362 Passes 393
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli and Roma shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Napoli had 48% of the ball to Roma's 52%, shots finished 26-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Napoli and 0.67 for Roma.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Roma?

Napoli 2-2 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Napoli 44%, draw 25%, Roma 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Napoli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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