Atalanta 2-0 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Apr 2024

Atalanta
2-0 HT 1-0
Empoli
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Atalanta vs Empoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.03
Over 2.5
59%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.18
6+ Goals
13%
10.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 28% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.81
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.55
X/1
23%
3.62
X/2
9%
12.9
X/X
8%
6.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
22.3
2/2
7%
10.25
2/X
6%
18.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 6% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
63%
-3.2pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.6pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atalanta v Empoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 19%
-9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.90/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.59
+17% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
408 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
21.1 Crosses 15.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Atalanta vs Empoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Empoli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
3.40 xG 0.49
58% Ball Possession 42%
29 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
455 Passes 296
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
51 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.10.2023 Empoli Empoli 0-3 HT 0-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
17.03.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 2-1 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
30.10.2022 Empoli Empoli 0-2 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
21.05.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 0-1 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
17.10.2021 Empoli Empoli 1-4 HT 1-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
15.04.2019 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA

Atalanta 2-0 Empoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
2-0
AWAY Empoli
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
366 Passes 219
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta beat Empoli 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atalanta had 59% of the ball to Empoli's 41%, shots finished 17-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atalanta and 0.50 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Empoli?

Atalanta 2-0 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 60%, draw 20%, Empoli 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
28 Apr 2024
13:30 Inter vs Torino Analysis →
16:00 Bologna vs Udinese Analysis →
19:00 Napoli vs Roma Analysis →
21:45 Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Analysis →