Hellas Verona 3-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Dec 2025

Hellas Verona
3-1 HT 2-0
Atalanta
📅06/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2025/2026

Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
52%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.82
Over
47%
1.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
3.15
2-3
42%
1.78
4-5
20%
3.6
6+
10%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.55
1/2
10%
24.85
1/X
8%
16.5
X/1
9%
10.3
X/2
14%
4.21
X/X
12%
4.96
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
27%
2.16
2/X
5%
14.55
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Hellas Verona v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hellas Verona The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta The Market 60%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Great Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.07 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.57
1.31 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 0.92
Strong Attackvs comparable teams Average
Average Defensevs comparable teams Strong
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
230 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 82%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
15.8 Crosses 17.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hellas Verona
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atalanta
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.90 xG 1.60
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
276 Passes 439
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.02.2025 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-5 HT 0-4 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
26.10.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 6-1 HT 5-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
15.04.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 2-2 HT 2-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
27.09.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
20.05.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
28.08.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA

Hellas Verona 3-1 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hellas Verona
3-1
AWAY Atalanta
0.99 xG 1.57
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
195 Passes 396
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Hellas Verona vs Atalanta
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Hellas Verona got the better of Atalanta 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The market had leaned harder still (1.68, ~60%); nobody's numbers saw this one coming.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both.

On the day, Atalanta saw more of the ball, 64% to 36%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.99 to 1.57 — by the quality of chances, Atalanta deserved more.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.67 a game for Hellas Verona against 3.00 for Atalanta.

Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Result & Final Score

Hellas Verona 3-1 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hellas Verona 23%, draw 25%, Atalanta 52%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atalanta), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
6 Dec 2025
17:00 Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Analysis →
20:00 Inter vs Como Analysis →