PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.74
Over 2.5
49%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.91
2-3 Goals
38%
2.05
4-5 Goals
25%
2.57
6+ Goals
10%
5.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.91 — our 27% vs market 12.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.94
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.1
X/1
14%
4.13
X/2
12%
10.6
X/X
11%
6.95
2/1
10%
18.95
2/2
8%
6.94
2/X
9%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
59%
-13.0pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.3pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
33%
+18.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
67%
-18.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.5pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 23%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.47/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.53
-52% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
11.0 Crosses 14.0
0.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Heracles
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.19 xG 0.86
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
472 Passes 279
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
33 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Heracles Heracles 0-6 HT 0-2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
06.03.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
14.08.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
04.04.2021 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-0 HT 2-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
27.09.2020 Heracles Heracles 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
18.08.2019 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
1-1
AWAY Heracles
0.52 xG 1.38
66% Ball Possession 34%
7 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
717 Passes 329
92% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 12
8 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven and Heracles shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was PSV Eindhoven at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 66% of the ball to Heracles's 34%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.52 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.33 for Heracles.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?

PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Heracles in the Friendlies on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 46%, draw 25%, Heracles 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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