Kitara 2-1 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 7 Jan 2026

Kitara
2-1 HT 2-0
UPDF
📅07/01/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
15%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.19
No
48%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
69%
-5.3pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.1pp
15%
Away Win
11%
+4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
42%
+10.3pp
48%
BTTS No
58%
-10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kitara EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.68/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/2.22
+34% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kitara
1W-1D-0L
AWAY UPDF
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2025 UPDF UPDF 0-0 HT 0-0 Kitara Kitara UGA
22.11.2024 Kitara Kitara 4-0 HT 3-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kitara
2-1
AWAY UPDF
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kitara vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kitara nicked a narrow win over UPDF 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kitara as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Kitara had 42% of the ball to UPDF's 58%, shots finished 11-17.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kitara had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kitara and 0.00 for UPDF.

What was the final score of Kitara vs UPDF?

Kitara 2-1 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 07/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kitara vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kitara win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Kitara 64%, draw 21%, UPDF 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kitara), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kitara) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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