NEC 1-0 Lugazi Municipal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 7 Jan 2026

📅07/01/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
14%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
63%
-0.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
14%
Away Win
15%
-0.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 18%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.67/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/1.72
-9% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lugazi Municipal
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.03.2025 NEC NEC 2-0 HT 0-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
30.10.2024 Lugazi Municipal 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC NEC UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC
1-0
AWAY Lugazi Municipal
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NEC vs Lugazi Municipal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC nicked a narrow win over Lugazi Municipal 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had NEC as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, NEC had 54% of the ball to Lugazi Municipal's 46%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NEC and 0.50 for Lugazi Municipal.

What was the final score of NEC vs Lugazi Municipal?

NEC 1-0 Lugazi Municipal in the Uganda - Premier League on 07/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC vs Lugazi Municipal?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split NEC 62%, draw 23%, Lugazi Municipal 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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