Sturm Graz 2-2 Austria Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 7 Feb 2025

📅07/02/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.09
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
12.3
X/1
18%
5.08
X/2
10%
6.86
X/X
17%
4.29
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
14%
4.95
2/X
8%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.50/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.42
-13% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
21.4 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Austria Wien
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 0.73
50% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
225 Passes 292
68% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVK
25.09.2024 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
02.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AUK
29.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
30.07.2023 Austria Wien Austria Wien 0-3 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
07.05.2023 Austria Wien Austria Wien 1-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
2-2
AWAY Austria Wien
1.56 xG 1.69
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
300 Passes 263
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz and Austria Wien shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sturm Graz at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 52% of the ball to Austria Wien's 48%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.56 to 1.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.00 for Austria Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien?

Sturm Graz 2-2 Austria Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 07/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 42%, draw 29%, Austria Wien 29%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5
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