Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 7 Feb 2025

📅07/02/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
10.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 29% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.49
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
15%
4.7
X/2
14%
8.28
X/X
9%
5.03
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
11%
6.0
2/X
10%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+5.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.5pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
1.81/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.25
+7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
22.2 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.63 xG 1.29
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
415 Passes 318
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.08.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
25.05.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
05.12.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POLK
01.12.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.05.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
05.11.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-4 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3-0
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
2.44 xG 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 0
326 Passes 337
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin swept aside Gornik Zabrze 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 49% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 51%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 2.44 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.50 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 07/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 45%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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