Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 7 Feb 2025

Stal Mielec
2-1 HT 2-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅07/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 26% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.02
1/2
8%
25.0
1/X
10%
12.85
X/1
12%
6.16
X/2
14%
5.47
X/X
10%
5.01
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
14%
3.35
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stal Mielec v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 43%
+9% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +19%
1.42/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.46
+1% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
22.1 Crosses 13.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.89 xG 1.88
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
323 Passes 409
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.08.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 1-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
04.05.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 3-2 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
03.11.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
03.04.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
12.09.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0 HT 3-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
04.03.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL

Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
2-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.10 xG 1.29
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
354 Passes 270
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 50
11 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec nicked a narrow win over Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Stal Mielec made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 56% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 44%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 2.10 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Stal Mielec and 2.33 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 07/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Mielec win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 38%, draw 26%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stal Mielec), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stal Mielec) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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