Omiya Ardija 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — JAP2-3, 7 Feb 2026

📅07/02/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.49
Draw
17%
4.08
Away
15%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.0
Over 2.5
62%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.88
No
41%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.55
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.16
6+ Goals
16%
10.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.16 — our 26% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
63%
+5.1pp
17%
Draw
21%
-3.7pp
15%
Away Win
16%
-1.5pp
38%
Under 2.5
46%
-8.4pp
62%
Over 2.5
54%
+8.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
49%
+10.3pp
41%
BTTS No
51%
-10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
462 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Omiya Ardija
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
221 Passes 422
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.09.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP3
06.05.2024 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 0-2 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
29.08.2021 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 4-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
19.06.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
21.10.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 0-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
25.07.2020 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omiya Ardija
2-1
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
437 Passes 200
76% Pass Accuracy 61%
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Omiya Ardija squeezed past Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Omiya Ardija as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Omiya Ardija had 64% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 36%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Omiya Ardija had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Omiya Ardija and 0.50 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Omiya Ardija 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga in the JAP2-3 on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Omiya Ardija 68%, draw 17%, Matsumoto Yamaga 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Omiya Ardija), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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