Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Omiya Ardija — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-1.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 42%
-2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.52/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.75
+18% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +57%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Omiya Ardija
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2024 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 0-2 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
29.08.2021 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 4-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
19.06.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
21.10.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 0-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
25.07.2020 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
0-1
AWAY Omiya Ardija
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
422 Passes 221
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Omiya Ardija squeezed past Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 36% — and on the day Omiya Ardija made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 63% of the ball to Omiya Ardija's 37%, shots finished 11-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Omiya Ardija led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.20 for Omiya Ardija.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Omiya Ardija in the Japan - J3 League on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

Before kick-off our model rated an Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 34%, draw 30%, Omiya Ardija 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Omiya Ardija), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP3 More Japan - J3 League
7 Sep 2024
12:00 Yokohama SCC vs Zweigen Kanazawa Analysis →
12:00 Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Imabari Analysis →
12:00 Sagamihara vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki Analysis →
12:00 Ryukyu vs Grulla Morioka Analysis →
13:00 Gainare Tottori vs Azul Claro Numazu Analysis →
13:00 Parceiro Nagano vs Osaka Analysis →