Boulogne 1-1 Aubagne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.67
Over 2.5
36%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
15%
4.12
6+ Goals
7%
20.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 36% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
18%
4.36
X/2
9%
7.77
X/X
14%
4.18
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
12%
6.43
2/X
5%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.9pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.3pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boulogne EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Aubagne EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.26/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/0.85
-18% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +55%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boulogne
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Aubagne
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
04.10.2024 Aubagne Aubagne 3-0 HT 2-0 Boulogne Boulogne FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boulogne
1-1
AWAY Aubagne
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Boulogne vs Aubagne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boulogne and Aubagne couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Boulogne at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Boulogne had 48% of the ball to Aubagne's 52%, shots finished 11-9.

What was the final score of Boulogne vs Aubagne?

Boulogne 1-1 Aubagne in the France - National League 1 on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boulogne vs Aubagne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boulogne win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Boulogne 47%, draw 28%, Aubagne 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Boulogne), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Boulogne) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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