Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.07
2-3 Goals
35%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
9.98
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 28% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.28
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
18%
4.37
X/2
8%
8.64
X/X
7%
5.66
2/1
6%
21.1
2/2
11%
6.43
2/X
10%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.6pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -18%
1.61/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.38
-6% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
20.1 Crosses 13.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
5W-0D-1L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.69 xG 1.31
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
359 Passes 252
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
04.08.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-5 HT 0-3 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
07.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
11.11.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
11.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
04.09.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
19.03.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 2-3 HT 2-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1-1
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
1.29 xG 2.11
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
321 Passes 222
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow and FC Akhmat Grozny shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Moscow at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 57% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 43%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.29 to 2.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 0.83 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Premier League on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 53%, draw 22%, FC Akhmat Grozny 25%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ BTTS No
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