Lugano 1-3 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.56
No
38%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
27%
2.95
6+ Goals
10%
9.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.86
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
11%
12.35
X/1
14%
5.1
X/2
11%
6.97
X/X
8%
5.16
2/1
8%
22.65
2/2
15%
4.65
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.3pp
62%
BTTS Yes
60%
+2.1pp
38%
BTTS No
40%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.33/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.47
-11% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
16.5 Crosses 15.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Luzern
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.42 xG 1.23
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
366 Passes 326
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.01.2026 Luzern Luzern 2-5 HT 1-3 Lugano Lugano İSV
30.10.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
04.05.2025 Luzern Luzern 0-2 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
15.02.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
07.12.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-4 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSV
11.08.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-3 HT 2-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
1-3
AWAY Luzern
0.78 xG 1.94
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
466 Passes 234
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern saw off Lugano 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lugano at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Lugano had 64% of the ball to Luzern's 36%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.78 to 1.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Lugano and 1.00 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Luzern?

Lugano 1-3 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lugano 41%, draw 27%, Luzern 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lugano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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