Lugano 2-0 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.15
Over 2.5
63%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.6
No
37%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
3.05
6+ Goals
13%
9.46
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.05 — our 31% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.66
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
14%
4.94
X/2
9%
7.56
X/X
14%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.1
2/2
11%
5.18
2/X
7%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.7pp
37%
Under 2.5
43%
-6.0pp
63%
Over 2.5
57%
+6.0pp
63%
BTTS Yes
58%
+4.7pp
37%
BTTS No
42%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.43/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.51
-4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -15%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
17.9 Crosses 15.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Luzern
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.47 xG 1.56
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
371 Passes 279
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-4 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSV
11.08.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-3 HT 2-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
03.03.2024 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
03.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
03.09.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-2 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
07.05.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
2-0
AWAY Luzern
1.30 xG 0.73
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
418 Passes 278
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano saw off Luzern 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugano had 58% of the ball to Luzern's 42%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.30 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lugano and 1.50 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Luzern?

Lugano 2-0 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lugano 46%, draw 27%, Luzern 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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