Luzern 2-5 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 17 Jan 2026

📅17/01/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
9%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.87
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
10%
12.35
X/1
14%
6.19
X/2
12%
5.9
X/X
7%
5.01
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
14%
3.58
2/X
9%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.9pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -11%
1.52/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.27
+2% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +15%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.5 Crosses 18.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Lugano
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.22 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
311 Passes 356
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
30.10.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
04.05.2025 Luzern Luzern 0-2 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
15.02.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
07.12.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-4 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSV
11.08.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-3 HT 2-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
03.03.2024 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
2-5
AWAY Lugano
1.07 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
332 Passes 411
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano ran out comfortable winners over Luzern 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Lugano found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Luzern had 45% of the ball to Lugano's 55%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.07 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Luzern and 2.17 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Lugano?

Luzern 2-5 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Luzern 39%, draw 27%, Lugano 34%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ BTTS Yes
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