Cagliari 2-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.87
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
12.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.43 — our 26% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.89
1/2
5%
23.6
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
7%
9.05
X/2
16%
4.11
X/X
13%
4.96
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.29
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+2.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.0pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 57%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.08/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/0.90
-5% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +22%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 81%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.5
21.2 Crosses 18.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Atalanta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.64 xG 2.24
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
290 Passes 493
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.09.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 2-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
06.02.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
06.11.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 1-2 HT 1-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
14.02.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
14.01.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTK
04.10.2020 Atalanta Atalanta 5-2 HT 4-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
2-1
AWAY Atalanta
0.67 xG 0.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
188 Passes 376
63% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari nicked a narrow win over Atalanta 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cagliari had 38% of the ball to Atalanta's 62%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.67 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cagliari and 2.33 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Atalanta?

Cagliari 2-1 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 25%, draw 27%, Atalanta 48%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atalanta) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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