Juventus 1-0 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.79
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.18
6+ Goals
10%
20.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
25%
3.96
X/2
6%
9.0
X/X
10%
4.34
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
10%
7.44
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.4pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventus EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 24%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.64/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.63
-2% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 84%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
17.9 Crosses 19.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventus
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.64 xG 1.30
38% Ball Possession 62%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
272 Passes 476
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-1 HT 0-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
12.02.2023 Juventus Juventus 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
03.09.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 1-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
21.05.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-0 HT 1-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
20.04.2022 Juventus Juventus 2-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTK
02.03.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-1 HT 0-0 Juventus Juventus İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventus
1-0
AWAY Fiorentina
1.94 xG 0.55
25% Ball Possession 75%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
154 Passes 591
71% Pass Accuracy 91%
16 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Juventus vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventus squeezed past Fiorentina 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Juventus as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Juventus had 25% of the ball to Fiorentina's 75%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 1.94 to 0.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Juventus's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventus had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Juventus and 0.50 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Juventus vs Fiorentina?

Juventus 1-0 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventus vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Juventus win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Juventus 52%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Juventus), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Juventus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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