Monza 2-4 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 7 Apr 2024

Monza
2-4 HT 1-0
Napoli
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Monza vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
45%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.41
1/2
8%
23.15
1/X
8%
14.65
X/1
14%
8.58
X/2
19%
4.16
X/X
13%
5.09
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.35
2/X
6%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+5.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
45%
Away Win
52%
-7.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 56%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.09/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.00
-22% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 81%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
16.7 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Monza vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Napoli
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.92 xG 1.71
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 10
323 Passes 442
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.12.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
14.05.2023 Monza Monza 2-0 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
21.08.2022 Napoli Napoli 4-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA

Monza 2-4 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
2-4
AWAY Napoli
0.40 xG 2.20
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 6
277 Passes 503
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
11 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monza vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli got the better of Monza 4-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Monza had 38% of the ball to Napoli's 62%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 0.40 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Monza and 1.33 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Monza vs Napoli?

Monza 2-4 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Monza 28%, draw 27%, Napoli 45%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Napoli)
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