Atletico Tucuman 3-2 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 7 Apr 2024

Atletico Tucuman
3-2 HT 1-1
Gimnasia La Plata
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2023/2024

Atletico Tucuman vs Gimnasia La Plata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.64
Over 2.5
36%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.44
6+ Goals
8%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 35% vs market 31.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
15%
4.25
X/2
13%
7.46
X/X
16%
4.07
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
6%
6.06
2/X
9%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.7pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
57%
+6.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
43%
-6.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.8pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Tucuman v Gimnasia La Plata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Tucuman EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.23/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.35
-22% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
282 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 68%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
23.8 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8

Atletico Tucuman vs Gimnasia La Plata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Tucuman
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 0.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
231 Passes 287
69% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman ARJ
12.07.2023 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman 2-0 HT 2-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
11.07.2022 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman 2-0 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
09.04.2022 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman 1-2 HT 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
08.08.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman ARJ
20.03.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman ARJ

Atletico Tucuman 3-2 Gimnasia La Plata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Tucuman
3-2
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.97 xG 0.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
298 Passes 259
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Tucuman vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Tucuman nicked a narrow win over Gimnasia La Plata 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Tucuman as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Tucuman had 51% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 49%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.97 to 0.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Tucuman's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 1.00 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of Atletico Tucuman vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Atletico Tucuman 3-2 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Tucuman vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Tucuman win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico Tucuman 44%, draw 31%, Gimnasia La Plata 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Tucuman) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Tucuman) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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