New Mexico United 3-2 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 31% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.6pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +20%
1.20/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.53
-2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
15.9 Crosses 13.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.10 xG 0.90
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
298 Passes 416
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.07.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 0-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
04.06.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
03.09.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
20.03.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 1-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
15.08.2021 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-1 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
25.07.2021 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
3-2
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.15 xG 1.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
265 Passes 379
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United squeezed past El Paso Locomotive 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New Mexico United had 43% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 57%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.15 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for New Mexico United and 0.83 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?

New Mexico United 3-2 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 47%, draw 27%, El Paso Locomotive 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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