AEK Atina 2-2 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
32%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.08
2-3 Goals
43%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.82
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.08 — our 26% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.24
X/2
10%
9.6
X/X
13%
5.27
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
16%
6.95
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-11.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
32%
Away Win
21%
+10.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.24/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.21
+1% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
408 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 71%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
22.6 Crosses 11.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
4W-1D-1L
AWAY PAOK
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.08 xG 0.60
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
326 Passes 235
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 1-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
30.10.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
24.05.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
26.04.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 4-0 HT 2-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
02.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
19.02.2023 PAOK PAOK 2-0 HT 1-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
2-2
AWAY PAOK
0.51 xG 1.13
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
256 Passes 196
75% Pass Accuracy 67%
18 Box Touches 34
21 Crosses 22
6 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Atina and PAOK shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was AEK Atina at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AEK Atina had 54% of the ball to PAOK's 46%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.51 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AEK Atina and 0.50 for PAOK.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs PAOK?

AEK Atina 2-2 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 43%, draw 25%, PAOK 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina)
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YUN More Greece - Super League
7 Apr 2024
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