AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 7 Apr 2025

AZ Alkmaar II
2-2 HT 0-1
PSV II
📅07/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

AZ Alkmaar II vs PSV II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.46
Over 2.5
67%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.38
No
40%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
8.16
2-3 Goals
35%
2.35
4-5 Goals
29%
2.31
6+ Goals
20%
3.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.97
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
18%
4.82
X/2
8%
10.8
X/X
8%
8.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
16.6
2/2
9%
6.73
2/X
6%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 16.6 — our 11% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-3.0pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.0pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+4.0pp
33%
Under 2.5
25%
+7.2pp
67%
Over 2.5
75%
-7.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
68%
-8.6pp
40%
BTTS No
32%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar II v PSV II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.46/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.86
+23% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
10.5 Crosses 11.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

AZ Alkmaar II vs PSV II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
3W-1D-2L
AWAY PSV II
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.89 xG 1.57
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
422 Passes 388
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2024 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
08.03.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
24.11.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
27.02.2023 PSV II PSV II 3-3 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
12.12.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 HT 2-3 PSV II PSV II HOL2
01.04.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-0 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2

AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 PSV II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2-2
AWAY PSV II
0.68 xG 2.09
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
426 Passes 407
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II and PSV II couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AZ Alkmaar II at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 51% of the ball to PSV II's 49%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.68 to 2.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 1.67 for PSV II.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs PSV II?

AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 55%, draw 20%, PSV II 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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