PSV II 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 25 Nov 2024

PSV II
2-1 HT 1-1
AZ Alkmaar II
📅25/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

PSV II vs AZ Alkmaar II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.89
Over 2.5
58%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.38
No
42%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.83
2-3 Goals
34%
2.18
4-5 Goals
29%
2.52
6+ Goals
13%
5.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.06
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
14%
7.15
X/2
15%
5.45
X/X
9%
6.45
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
18%
2.8
2/X
7%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.0 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
31%
+10.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
69%
-10.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.6pp
42%
BTTS No
32%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV II v AZ Alkmaar II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 48%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.28/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/1.82
+0% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
14.1 Crosses 11.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

PSV II vs AZ Alkmaar II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.72 xG 1.80
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
407 Passes 439
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.03.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
24.11.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
27.02.2023 PSV II PSV II 3-3 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
12.12.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 HT 2-3 PSV II PSV II HOL2
01.04.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-0 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
01.11.2021 PSV II PSV II 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2

PSV II 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
2-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.75 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
325 Passes 334
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH PSV II vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II edged past AZ Alkmaar II 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 23% / 41%) promised a tight game; PSV II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV II had 50% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 50%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.75 to 1.47 — on chances, AZ Alkmaar II could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for PSV II and 2.17 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of PSV II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

PSV II 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 25/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PSV II 36%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar II 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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