Bolton Wanderers 2-3 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 7 May 2024

📅07/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.39
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
28%
2.68
6+ Goals
11%
6.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.29
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
18%
4.47
X/2
7%
8.51
X/X
14%
6.29
2/1
7%
20.0
2/2
10%
5.51
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.05
Value flag · 2/X at 14.05 — our 11% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.4pp
31%
Draw
23%
+8.2pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.1pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.65/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.34
+19% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
396 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 69%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
20.2 Crosses 19.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolton Wanderers
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Barnsley
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.88 xG 0.91
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
339 Passes 179
72% Pass Accuracy 61%
24 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2024 Barnsley Barnsley 1-3 HT 0-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
05.03.2024 Barnsley Barnsley 2-2 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
03.02.2024 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
19.05.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 1-0 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
13.05.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
02.01.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 0-3 HT 0-2 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
2-3
AWAY Barnsley
1.17 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
226 Passes 194
67% Pass Accuracy 63%
16 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley nicked a narrow win over Bolton Wanderers 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Bolton Wanderers at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 52% of the ball to Barnsley's 48%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.17 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bolton Wanderers had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.00 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley?

Bolton Wanderers 2-3 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 07/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 46%, draw 31%, Barnsley 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →