Santos 4-1 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 7 May 2024

📅07/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.53
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.29
No
61%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.56
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.6
6+ Goals
8%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 37% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
61%
-13.1pp
31%
Draw
24%
+7.3pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+5.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.4pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 18%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.09/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.28
+28% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
11.0 Crosses 17.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Guarani FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.24 xG 1.45
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
414 Passes 280
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.02.2024 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU
19.01.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
06.02.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BREPAU
28.01.2020 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BREPAU
19.02.2019 Santos Santos 3-0 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU
16.03.2013 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
4-1
AWAY Guarani FC
1.31 xG 1.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
405 Passes 327
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Santos vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos ran out comfortable winners over Guarani FC 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos had 55% of the ball to Guarani FC's 45%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.31 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Santos and 0.83 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Santos vs Guarani FC?

Santos 4-1 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 07/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Santos 48%, draw 31%, Guarani FC 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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