Machida Zelvia 1-2 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 7 May 2025

📅07/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.51
Over 2.5
38%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.32
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.84
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.2
X/1
10%
4.28
X/2
11%
7.51
X/X
13%
3.84
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
9%
6.64
2/X
9%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.5pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 28%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +23%
1.37/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.39
-5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
22.7 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.56 xG 0.56
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
215 Passes 244
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
38 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
06.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-3 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
09.08.2021 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
11.04.2021 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
14.10.2020 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 3-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
02.08.2020 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-2
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.41 xG 0.56
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
233 Passes 272
66% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga squeezed past Machida Zelvia 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 48% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 52%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.41 to 0.56 — the balance of chances actually favoured Machida Zelvia.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Machida Zelvia and 0.67 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga?

Machida Zelvia 1-2 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 07/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 42%, draw 30%, Kyoto Sanga 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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