Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
12.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.4
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
17.95
X/1
21%
4.34
X/2
9%
10.3
X/X
8%
6.25
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
7.88
2/X
8%
18.55
Value flag · 1/X at 17.95 — our 10% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +27%
2.07/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.44
+2% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +37%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
20.2 Crosses 16.9
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.97 xG 0.46
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
220 Passes 286
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 6
21 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-3 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
09.08.2021 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
11.04.2021 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
14.10.2020 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 3-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
02.08.2020 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
14.09.2019 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-0
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.16 xG 0.65
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
210 Passes 201
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
37 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia nicked a narrow win over Kyoto Sanga 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 50% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 50%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.16 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kyoto Sanga led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.00 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga?

Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 48%, draw 25%, Kyoto Sanga 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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