Nagoya Grampus 0-3 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.77
6+ Goals
10%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.37
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.8
X/1
22%
4.26
X/2
8%
11.15
X/X
14%
5.57
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
12%
9.02
2/X
5%
18.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-5.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -7%
1.65/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.67
-24% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
408 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
17.2 Crosses 15.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.70 xG 0.57
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
341 Passes 426
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
18.05.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
27.10.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
04.03.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
14.08.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
06.03.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
17.07.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
0-3
AWAY Sagan Tosu
0.97 xG 0.98
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
485 Passes 220
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
34 Box Touches 18
36 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu cruised past Nagoya Grampus 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Nagoya Grampus at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 65% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 35%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 0.97 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.00 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Sagan Tosu?

Nagoya Grampus 0-3 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 51%, draw 24%, Sagan Tosu 25%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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