Jubilo Iwata 2-1 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.3
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.66
6+ Goals
12%
14.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.66 — our 24% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.17
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
15%
6.37
X/2
15%
6.45
X/X
10%
4.8
2/1
6%
33.5
2/2
14%
4.24
2/X
7%
13.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 38%
-7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -6%
1.24/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.08
+8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.5 Crosses 14.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 1.41
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
290 Passes 453
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.06.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-1 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
17.07.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
14.05.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
23.04.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
15.03.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
09.11.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
2-1
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.74 xG 0.66
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 8
211 Passes 275
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jubilo Iwata edged past FC Tokyo 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Jubilo Iwata made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 46% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 54%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.74 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 1.00 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs FC Tokyo?

Jubilo Iwata 2-1 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jubilo Iwata win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 39%, draw 26%, FC Tokyo 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jubilo Iwata), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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