FC Tokyo 1-1 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 30% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
17%
4.42
X/2
10%
7.7
X/X
15%
4.48
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
15%
5.81
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.69/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.47
+9% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
17.1 Crosses 20.4
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.37 xG 0.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
423 Passes 343
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
17.07.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
14.05.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
23.04.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
15.03.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
09.11.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
12.05.2019 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
1-1
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
1.28 xG 0.37
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
469 Passes 194
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 17
36 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo and Jubilo Iwata shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was FC Tokyo at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 66% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 34%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.28 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Tokyo and 0.67 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Jubilo Iwata?

FC Tokyo 1-1 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 43%, draw 27%, Jubilo Iwata 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Tokyo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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