Avispa Fukuoka 2-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒09:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.62
Over 2.5
50%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
4.53
6+ Goals
8%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.99
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
17%
4.52
X/2
9%
6.92
X/X
12%
3.91
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
16%
5.49
2/X
8%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.1pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.02/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.53
-28% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 79%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
22.5 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.17 xG 0.61
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
246 Passes 453
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.08.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
14.05.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
26.08.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
01.04.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
25.09.2021 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 3-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
07.07.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.27 xG 0.84
37% Ball Possession 63%
18 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
228 Passes 455
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 12
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka got the better of Sagan Tosu 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Avispa Fukuoka as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 37% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 63%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.27 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 0.33 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Sagan Tosu?

Avispa Fukuoka 2-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 43%, draw 26%, Sagan Tosu 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka)
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
16 Jun 2024
08:00 Vissel Kobe vs Kawasaki Frontale Analysis →
12:00 FC Tokyo vs Jubilo Iwata Analysis →
12:00 Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata Analysis →
12:00 Gamba Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →