Kashima Antlers 1-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.49
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
19%
4.16
X/2
15%
8.24
X/X
12%
4.51
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
8%
6.49
2/X EV+ ✓
12%
14.7
Value flag · 2/X at 14.7 — our 12% vs market 4.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.57/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.50
+11% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
379 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
20.3 Crosses 14.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.45 xG 0.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
313 Passes 412
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
18.06.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
23.04.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-2 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
26.03.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JLK
16.09.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-4 HT 2-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
25.06.2017 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
1-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.37 xG 1.44
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
299 Passes 599
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
22 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers and Albirex Niigata shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Kashima Antlers at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 37% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 63%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.37 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kashima Antlers and 0.50 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata?

Kashima Antlers 1-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 43%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kashima Antlers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✓ Under 2.5
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