Tokyo Verdy 4-5 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.5
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 27% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.5
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
20%
5.64
X/2
9%
7.17
X/X
11%
5.17
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
15%
4.93
2/X
10%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -19%
1.70/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.34
+29% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
408 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
18.3 Crosses 18.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.60 xG 1.07
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
253 Passes 388
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 37
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 0
20.04.2024 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 0-0 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
22.06.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 0-1 HT 0-1 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
4-5
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kawasaki Frontale nicked a narrow win over Tokyo Verdy 5-4 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Kawasaki Frontale made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 47% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 53%, shots finished 12-15.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tokyo Verdy had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 0.00 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Tokyo Verdy 4-5 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 40%, draw 28%, Kawasaki Frontale 32%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tokyo Verdy), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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