Beijing Guoan 1-2 Wuhan Three Towns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.45 — our 26% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.26
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.6
X/1
15%
4.16
X/2
10%
9.39
X/X
9%
4.8
2/1
4%
24.0
2/2
10%
7.17
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.4
Value flag · 2/X at 14.4 — our 11% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.4pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.4pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Wuhan Three Towns EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.72/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.39
-9% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.8 Crosses 11.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beijing Guoan
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Wuhan Three Towns
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.21 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
351 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 HT 0-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
16.07.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 1-1 HT 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns ÇİNSL
20.04.2023 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 HT 0-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
08.11.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 0-2 HT 0-1 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns ÇİN
12.08.2022 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns 5-1 HT 2-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beijing Guoan
1-2
AWAY Wuhan Three Towns
1.88 xG 0.42
68% Ball Possession 32%
28 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
454 Passes 196
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
48 Box Touches 11
53 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wuhan Three Towns edged past Beijing Guoan 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Beijing Guoan at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Beijing Guoan had 68% of the ball to Wuhan Three Towns's 32%, shots finished 28-7, expected goals 1.88 to 0.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Beijing Guoan.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Wuhan Three Towns led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.80 for Wuhan Three Towns.

What was the final score of Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?

Beijing Guoan 1-2 Wuhan Three Towns in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beijing Guoan win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Beijing Guoan 47%, draw 30%, Wuhan Three Towns 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Beijing Guoan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Beijing Guoan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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