South Melbourne 1-0 Dandenong Thunder — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
1.43
Draw
33%
4.49
Away
33%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
66%
-32.5pp
33%
Draw
19%
+14.0pp
33%
Away Win
15%
+18.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 18%
+15% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.58/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.12
+11% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +50%
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Total Shots 0
0 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 0
0 · 0% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 0 · 0%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 17.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Dandenong Thunder
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.56 xG 0.88
46% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
150 Passes 339
58% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 4
06.04.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-2 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.06.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-2 HT 2-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
11.03.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 0-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
09.07.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
09.04.2022 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
03.07.2021 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 4-1 HT 2-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne nicked a narrow win over Dandenong Thunder 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 33% / 33% — and on the day South Melbourne made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for South Melbourne and 1.50 for Dandenong Thunder.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?

South Melbourne 1-0 Dandenong Thunder in the Australia - National Premier League on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 33%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 33%, draw 33%, Dandenong Thunder 33%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/33/33)
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