Metta / LU Riga 3-2 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metta / LU Riga EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 39%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -12%
1.33/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.08
-7% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +23%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
245 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
12.5 Crosses 19.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metta / LU Riga
1W-2D-3L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.15 xG 1.58
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
300 Passes 232
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 3-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
03.04.2024 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
29.09.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-2 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
10.07.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
18.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
07.04.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 3-2 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metta / LU Riga
3-2
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.62 xG 1.12
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
459 Passes 230
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Metta / LU Riga vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metta / LU Riga edged past BFC Daugavpils 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Metta / LU Riga made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Metta / LU Riga had 63% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 37%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.62 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Metta / LU Riga and 2.00 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Metta / LU Riga vs BFC Daugavpils?

Metta / LU Riga 3-2 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metta / LU Riga vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated an BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Metta / LU Riga 34%, draw 28%, BFC Daugavpils 38%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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