Ermenistan 4-1 Letonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.72
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.98
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
49%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.92
6+ Goals
7%
17.65
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.77 — our 49% vs market 49.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.0
X/1
9%
3.86
X/2
6%
9.95
X/X
19%
4.61
2/1
4%
25.5
2/2
14%
8.21
2/X
4%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-12.9pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.8pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.3pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ermenistan EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Letonya EU Bookmakers 22%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.72/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.37
+7% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +45%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
524 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 82%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
9.0 Crosses 24.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ermenistan
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Letonya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.69 xG 0.83
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
456 Passes 192
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
33 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
12.10.2023 Letonya Letonya 2-0 HT 1-0 Ermenistan Ermenistan AVŞE
19.06.2023 Ermenistan Ermenistan 2-1 HT 1-0 Letonya Letonya AVŞE
03.09.2014 Letonya Letonya 2-0 HT 1-0 Ermenistan Ermenistan HAZ
11.02.2009 Ermenistan Ermenistan 0-0 HT 0-0 Letonya Letonya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ermenistan
4-1
AWAY Letonya
1.23 xG 0.15
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
487 Passes 303
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 4
14 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ermenistan vs Letonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ermenistan cruised past Letonya 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ermenistan as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ermenistan had 59% of the ball to Letonya's 41%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 1.23 to 0.15.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Letonya led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ermenistan and 1.25 for Letonya.

What was the final score of Ermenistan vs Letonya?

Ermenistan 4-1 Letonya in the UEFA Uluslar League on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ermenistan vs Letonya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ermenistan win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ermenistan 42%, draw 32%, Letonya 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ermenistan) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ermenistan) ✗ Under 2.5
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