Ukrayna 1-2 Arnavutluk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.5
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.74
6+ Goals
6%
26.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 38% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.48
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
16%
3.88
X/2 EV+ ✓
17%
8.36
X/X
13%
4.12
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
6%
7.2
2/X
5%
16.2
Value flag · X/2 at 8.36 — our 17% vs market 8.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-2.5pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.4pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+5.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.6pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ukrayna EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Arnavutluk EU Bookmakers 25%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.66/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.78
-45% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -28%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
10.0 Crosses 17.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ukrayna
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Arnavutluk
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
03.06.2018 Ukrayna Ukrayna 4-1 HT 3-0 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk HAZ
03.06.2016 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk 1-3 HT 1-1 Ukrayna Ukrayna HAZ
08.10.2005 Ukrayna Ukrayna 2-2 HT 1-0 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk DKE
09.02.2005 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk 0-2 HT 0-1 Ukrayna Ukrayna DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ukrayna
1-2
AWAY Arnavutluk
0.77 xG 0.86
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
421 Passes 281
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ukrayna vs Arnavutluk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arnavutluk edged past Ukrayna 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ukrayna at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ukrayna had 59% of the ball to Arnavutluk's 41%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 0.77 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ukrayna had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Ukrayna and 1.00 for Arnavutluk.

What was the final score of Ukrayna vs Arnavutluk?

Ukrayna 1-2 Arnavutluk in the UEFA Uluslar League on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ukrayna vs Arnavutluk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ukrayna win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ukrayna 49%, draw 24%, Arnavutluk 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ukrayna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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