Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 Celaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
53%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.75
Over 2.5
55%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
4%
X/2
18%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
27%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
24%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
53%
Away Win
50%
+3.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
53%
-7.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
47%
+7.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.9pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Celaya EU Bookmakers 54%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.26/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.00
+14% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
227 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Celaya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
01.03.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-2 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
20.08.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
10.03.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
10.08.2022 Celaya Celaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
07.01.2022 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
10.09.2021 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Celaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos edged past Celaya 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Celaya at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 1.33 for Celaya.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Celaya?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 Celaya in the Mexico - Primera A on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Celaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 21%, draw 26%, Celaya 53%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Celaya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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