Academica 2-0 Benfica Castelo Branco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.42
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
30%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
67%
-16.4pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.6pp
30%
Away Win
12%
+18.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academica EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica Castelo Branco EU Bookmakers 14%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +68% / +68%
1.08/0.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
-56% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
412 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academica
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Benfica Castelo Branco
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
01.08.2015 Benfica Castelo Branco Benfica Castelo Branco 2-1 HT 1-0 Academica Academica HAZ
POST-MATCH Academica vs Benfica Castelo Branco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Academica saw off Benfica Castelo Branco 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Academica as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

What was the final score of Academica vs Benfica Castelo Branco?

Academica 2-0 Benfica Castelo Branco in the Portugal - Cup on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academica vs Benfica Castelo Branco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Academica 51%, draw 20%, Benfica Castelo Branco 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Academica), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Academica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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